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Quarterly Client Update - July 2002
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We are pleased to enclose your quarterly statements for the quarter ending 6/30/2002. As you are aware, this has proven to be an exceptionally challenging time for investors. Due to such factors as terrorism threats, corporate crimes and accounting scandals; much of the good news has been completely dismissed by the financial press. While we don’t, in any way, minimize these issues; we continue to believe that a recovery is underway. However, it is at a slower than expected rate. There is a classic pattern historically, where market levels are re-tested one last time, prior to a recovery. This may be what has occurred in the weeks following June 10th which were devastating for the broad markets. Remember, typical recovery happens at the end or near end of a recession.
Market Outlook
We must look at the exceptions beyond the obvious negative reports, to find opportunities and see what is working. There is some very good overall news for the quarter. Let’s take a look at some key factors:
* The Core holdings of our portfolios endured well
* While it was a bad quarter for stocks, bonds did exceptionally well
* Gross domestic product (GDP) figures were revised upward for the 1st quarter to 6.1%.
* Productivity remains high - manufacturing sectors report better sales
* Consumer spending increased 3.3% last month * New home purchases have remained stronger than ever. Consumer spending and new home sales have led us out of recession in past cycles * The Federal Reserve has made a policy shift to neutral and for the foreseeable future, will not be raising rates. This is very positive for the business community * There have been significant inflows of new investment dollars to the small cap value areas of the market. As you know, our portfolios have been concentrated here for the last year * The Euro has significantly strengthened and the European economy is in recovery. This will benefit your international allocations
§ The areas we are currently researching to evaluate overall risk/return characteristics are:
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS)
Foreign Stocks
Foreign Bonds - Corporate
Emerging Market Bonds - Government debt
High Yield Bonds - which will offer possibility in next 12 months
Portfolio Positions The overall theme in your portfolios is value. Small and Mid cap value stocks still represent the bulk of your holdings, and until the recovery solidifies, we’ll still maintain these positions. We’ve increased our international exposure with the Artisan International Small Cap Fund. It’s our belief that foreign countries represent significant discounted opportunities relative to the United States. In the interim, we are identifying potential Growth stock candidates. Artisan Mid Cap stock has been replaced in your portfolios with Heritage Mid Cap Stock. Heritage is more equipped to take advantage of a market recovery, while providing downside protection with a ‘growth at a reasonable price’ strategy. Mid-cap stocks fly under the radar screen of many managers and offer upside potential. N/I Numeric Small Cap Value still remains one of our top-performing holdings with a 12-month return of 30.8%. On the bond side, we are researching Pimco’s Emerging Market Bond Fund. This selection falls in line with our overall value theme. The enclosed article on Pimco’s Manager, Bill Gross, is very enlightening and makes a compelling argument for this fund. We continue to believe that we’ve reached an interest rate bottom, and have positioned ourselves accordingly. We’ve seen the duration/maturity cut already in the Pimco Total Return fund.
Our thorough and careful research has been very beneficial in the turbulent markets and we will continue to do an even better job with the assistance of Albert Chu, CFA who has re-joined our firm as Chief Financial Analyst.
Singer Xenos Updates
For the second year in a row we are proud to have been named by Worth Magazine as one of the Top 250 financial advisory firms in the country. Marc and Scott having been on an extensive speaking tour around Florida to address M.D.’s on the worsening malpractice crisis we are facing.
Conclusion
We feel corporate profits will improve before year-end. Remember, when patience is most thin, is probably the time things are about to turn. We are actively working to find "pockets" in the market that do well even as the broad-based index declines, there are opportunities out there and wealth can be preserved and even created during difficult financial periods. We would like to point out two important areas to focus on in your reports. First, is the year-to-date performance of your portfolio. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is down 13.8% and NASDAQ is down 24.9% this year so far. Over the last three years, S&P 500 has fallen over 30% and NASDAQ over 70%. Through our philosophy of wealth conservation, you have done extraordinarily better than the overall market. Once again, we are extremely pleased with our performance through these difficult times. We continue to monitor economic conditions, and remain well positioned to take advantage of the recovery. In closing, we appreciate your patience and continued support. |
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